منابع مشابه
Nowcasting and the Taylor Rule
Actual federal funds rates in the U.S. have, at times, deviated from the recommendations of a simple Taylor rule. This paper proposes a “nowcasting” Taylor rule that preserves the form of the Taylor rule but encompasses realistic assumptions on information observable to policymakers. Because contemporaneous inflation rates and output gaps are not observable at the time policy is set, policymake...
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Article history: Received 8 August 2012 Received in revised form 18 June 2014 Accepted 1 July 2014 Available online 9 July 2014 This paper examines how stock market liquidity and commonality in liquidity are impacted by real-time output gap and inflation, as these macroeconomic variables have been shown to be the main drivers of monetary policy according to the Taylor rule. We show that an incr...
متن کاملReal-time expectations in the Taylor rule
This paper presents a refined interpretation of the role of real time data in estimating a Taylor rule. We use monthly Consensus survey data to construct inflationary and growth expectations. We argue that using real time expectations in estimating a Taylor rule is to be preferred above using real time output gap data alone. We approach uncertainty by the variance and skewness of expected outpu...
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Our long term goal is to better understand ensemble forecasting in general and the dynamics of initial uncertainty given only imperfect models in particular; we are most interested in the practical application to a real physical system, rather than toy examples where the model error is known a priori. Of particular interest to us are methods which aim to evaluate predictions of high dimensional...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2015
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2597017